Enhancing Preparedness Through Strategic Risk Assessment

In a strategic effort to ensure Lagos State is better prepared to prevent, detect and respond to emergencies, UKHSA’s International Health Regulations Strengthening Project (IHR-SP) and key stakeholders came together in November 2024 to conduct a multi-hazard risk assessment workshop. Attended by government agencies, health institutes and emergency response teams, the workshop made use of the World Health Organization’s Strategic Tool for Assessing Risks (STAR) to identify, assess and prioritise public health risks for the state. The IHR-SP played an important role facilitating the workshop, providing guidance on various aspects, including hazard analysis, evaluating the state’s vulnerabilities and coping capacities to inform risk mitigation strategies and developing a risk matrix and seasonal calendar.

Lagos State, located in the southwestern region of Nigeria is the smallest of 36 states in the country whilst being densely populated and a major hub for commercial, industrial, and financial activities. Lagos State is susceptible to public health challenges, including the risk of zoonotic diseases. The state’s dense population, urbanization, and environmental factors also contribute to its vulnerability to disease outbreaks, environmental hazards and technological risks. A structured, data-driven risk assessment approach makes preparedness efforts proactive rather than reactive. This informed the adoption of the STAR methodology to strengthen its resilience.

A total of 70 participants were trained, equipping them with the necessary skills to conduct the risk assessment. They were thereafter guided on hazard identification and risk assessment, as well as structured analyses of hazards, vulnerabilities, and coping capacities.

A total of 28 priority hazards were identified, spanning biological, societal, environmental, hydrometeorological, and technological risks. High-priority threats such as cholera, measles, and substance abuse were mapped, highlighting their seasonal trends. This approach led to the generation of a risk matrix and seasonal risk calendar, which would ultimately lead to the generation of prioritised action plans to enhance preparedness and response efforts.

In his closing remarks, the Director of Epidemiology, Biosecurity, and Global Health at the Lagos State Ministry of Health stated that “the outcome of the workshop would aid in effective and efficient preparation for and response to disease outbreaks, public health emergencies, and events in Lagos State”.

The next steps include developing contingency plans for prioritised hazards, operationalising the STAR report within the Lagos Emergency Strategic Action) and refining multi-sectoral response strategies. IHR-SP remains committed to supporting Lagos and other subnational entities in strengthening health security, ensuring communities are better protected against future public health emergencies.